Towards a Multi-polar World? Some Signs of Change from East Asia

Is the era of a lone superpower dominating international relations coming to an end? The rapid economic growth now occurring in Asia has not yet led to a reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape. Nevertheless Rémi Perelman analyses here a “bundle of facts” that suggest that the American military presence could in time find itself ousted from the countries of East Asia. Thus the Shanghai Cooperation Organization seems to be acquiring a new momentum and is becoming a truly regional organization, with the removal of American armed forces as one of its stated aims. But, according to Perelman, the main challenge to American leadership is likely to come from the bilateral agreements being forged by certain Asian nations, above all Russia and China.
While no Asian country currently seems ready to oppose American power head-on, that power is nevertheless clearly being challenged by the economic, political and geo-strategic alliances that are being developed or planned by such influential nations as China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Iran. It remains to be seen whether the countries of Asia can go beyond these short-term agreements and nurture a joint ambition based on shared interests that might result in the creation of an Asian power bloc as a potential counterweight to the superpower status of the United States. The analysis of the specifics of these flexible alliances forged by the nations of Asia, especially during summer 2005, leads Rémi Perelman to reflect on how they might ultimately be structured within a coherent bloc.