This issue of Futuribles comes out two years and four months after Russia launched its offensive against Ukraine and it must be admitted that there is currently little optimism over the outcome of the conflict. Whereas in spring 2022 Kyiv’s resistance to the Russian troops had given hope of a longer war that would ultimately see Moscow’s plans thwarted, this spring of 2024 brings confirmation that the war still goes on, that it grinds on indeed, but Ukrainian forces are under severe strain against Russian soldiers who seem to be in better shape. Delays on the part of the USA and the EU, which have meant that material support has been held up, are doubtless partly responsible, but, even if the Ukrainian army manages to regain fresh momentum, it is difficult to foresee a rosy scenario developing, particularly as the situation is now tending to inflame opinion in other countries in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region.
In this Chronicle, Jean-François Drevet examines three contrasting scenarios as to how the war in Ukraine might end, and the ensuing impacts on the EU and European security: Russian withdrawal (virtually utopian), the stabilization of the front (temporary or otherwise) or the defeat of Ukraine (at what cost?). As he points out in conclusion, it is most improbable that the European project will emerge from the conflict with its reputation enhanced. Neither having properly assessed the security issues on its borders nor succeeded in producing an adequate common defence policy, the EU will have to learn the lessons. Might that mean redoubling its efforts or simply giving up?
This article is downloadable only in French. It is not available in English.
