Four Scenarios for Ecological Transition: The ADEME Foresight Exercise Transition(s) 2050

Given the looming climate emergency and heightened European ambitions for carbon neutrality, the schedule for ecological transition in France is now very tight. In this context, a number of foresight exercises have been undertaken in recent years to stoke the debate and provide decision-makers with the food for thought needed for implementing a transition strategy compatible with the country’s de-carbonization objectives. ADEME (France’s Ecological Transition Agency), an inter-departmental public body that has been coordinating foresight thinking on the French ecological transition for more than 10 years, published its last exercise on the subject — Transition(s) 2050 — inlate 2021. This article reminds us of the context and methodology of that exercise, the fruit of two years’ work and collaboration. It lays out the four typical — coherent and contrasting — scenarios proposed by ADEME for taking France toward carbon neutrality by 2050. These are: ‘Frugal Generation’, ‘Territorial Cooperation’, ‘Green Technologies’ and ‘Restorative Paris’. Conceived for mainland France, these scenarios are based on the same macroeconomic, demographic and climate data, but they take distinct paths and reflect very different societal choices. It is now up to the political decision-makers to choose the path that seems most appropriate and acceptable to them, keeping in mind that each scenario forms a coherent whole (one cannot ‘cherry-pick’ from within the four), and that, above and beyond the 2050 target date, the intermediate stages are crucial (particularly 2030) and, lastly, to meet these intermediate targets, that it will be imperative to take action to modify demand — and hence to change ways of life and consumption.