Publications

L'abaque de Régnier est une technique de consultation d'experts et d'acteurs utilisée dans de nombreux domaines. Dans une démarche de prospective, il permet de recueillir des avis sur les messages clefs, que ce soient des tendances, des ruptures, des hypothèses, des enjeux ou des propositions, et de les mettre en débat.

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) is an intelligence analysis method based on evaluating plausible and exclusive hypotheses for a given question. It involves validating or invalidating hypotheses using available information; i.e., observed facts or existing data that essentially represent evidence for or against each hypothesis. Through a logical elimination process, ACH seeks primarily to refute rather than validate hypotheses.

Morphological analysis enables users to explore the possible futures of a system based on a combination of hypotheses related to that system’s components or variables. Originally employed in technological innovation, this method also lends itself to scenario building in foresight.

Causal Layered Analysis (abbreviated as CLA) is an approach and a technique used in foresight to shape the future more effectively. CLA may be used when debating all types of issues, collectively or individually.

This collective scenario generation technique pairs the two drivers of the highest importance and the greatest uncertainty for the topic under study as axes creating a 2x2 matrix which forms the basis for possible scenarios.

The driver report presents the documentation necessary to understand the evolution — past, present and future — of a variable.

Aspirational futures is an approach for learning about the future and committing to achieving a preferred future. Most often experienced through the scenario-building process, this method strives to take into account biases, especially participants' fears and aspirations related to the future.

A prediction market is a competitive betting game designed to tap into the collective intelligence of a large group of participants so as to predict the occurrence of specific events in the short-term future. This approach may generate dynamic predictions that evolve in real time until the issue has been resolved.