Prospective et théorie des jeux

All forecasts, whatever their topic and the methods used by their authors, always start by identifying the variables and actors involved. Then comes an evaluation of the margins for manoeuvre, their strategies and their alliances and conflicts.
Analysis of the actors’ stakes is an essential but sensitive task in most forecasting exercises. The difficulties arise from the plurality of actors, their respective powers – the repartition of which is itself one of the stakes – the strategies they are likely to select (often in secret) and their relationships, which are often more complex than a simple relationship of consensus or conflict. Christian Schmidt examines the use that could be made of game theory, to provide a better understanding of the actors and their inter-relationships.