An article published in Nature Food in June 2023 looks at the consequences of agricultural shocks, from one country to another, on food availability. According to the authors, extreme weather events and economic or geopolitical crises have agricultural consequences that are passed on from one country to another. To assess the resulting losses of food products, the authors used a multi-layer network model based on production, export and processing data for 125 basic commodities (cereals, protein crops, fruit, vegetables, animal products, etc.) in 192 countries.
Taking the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as an example, they estimated the food losses resulting from a fall in Ukrainian agricultural production. The availability of sunflower oil, for example, would be significantly reduced, by up to 38% for Northern Europe. The consequences of a change in maize production can also be seen, indirectly, in the availability of meat products resulting from a shortage of cereals for animal feed.
Effect of a simultaneous shock to the production of all food products in Ukraine, by world region and by product
Reading: the relative loss of a given affected product in an affected region is colour-coded (ranging from white, zero losses, to black, maximum losses). For example, The largest losses occur for sunflower oil in Southern Asia.
Source: Nature Food.
According to the authors, however, this model has certain limitations. It overestimates actual losses because the simulations are based on a static multilayer network that does not take into account the dynamic restructuring of supply relationships that occurs after a shock. The researchers also point out that the model assumes the destruction of the product or the means of production, and does not take into account other scenarios such as the physical blocking of infrastructures following a naval blockade. Despite these limitations, the results of the study provide an estimate of the losses incurred, and the authors propose an interactive map that simulates production shocks and identifies areas of fragility.
Reference: Laber Moritz et alii, “Shock Propagation from the RussiaRussia-Ukraine Conflict on International Multilayer Food Production Network Determines Global Food Availability”, Nature Food, Vol. 4, June 2023, pp. 508-517.
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N.B.: this article has been translated from French by DeepL and revised by Futuribles.
Source: this article is taken from the Blog de veille du CEP (Centre d’études et de prospective), July 2023.
