World Energy Perspectives
Jean-Marie Martin presents here the long-term perspective (to 2020) and a commentary, based in particular on work of the Global (World) Energy Council. On the demand side, the Council expects a reduction in the rate of consumption growth due to regular improvements in efficiency of energy use. But Jean-Marie Martin shows that this projection doubtless suffers from excessive optimism by examining, for large regions, the potential for reducing the energy intensity of GDP – especially the factors which permit or prevent their exploitation. On the supply side, the author recalls that the Council is counting on an augmentation of non-fossil sources of energy, which he explains to be another excessively optimistic expectation : there is not a realistic chance, in his view, that hydroelectric power, nuclear energy and renewable resources can develop with the anticipated speed. Finally, the author shows how the sometimes ideological consensus around grand designs can bias the exercise of foresight, which fails to keep a sufficiently comprehensive grasp on the collection of variables and the interests at stake. In passing, he underlines also how essential it is to distinguish more cleanly the “business as usual” (exploratory) approach from that of the “conventional wisdom” (normative).
