The Global Car Market: Factoring Urban Realities into Forecasts

With all their congestion problems, mobility based on the private car is under increasing pressure in the world’s cities. At the same time, there is a deep-set trend towards urbanization among the world’s population that has little prospect of being reversed in the coming decades. Futuribles and IHS examined these questions by way of a study incorporating the “urban factor” into the development of the global car market to 2035 (a study aimed mainly at the professionals in the sector, including car and parts manufacturers etc.). This raises a major question: “Could owning a vehicle become a thing of the past in cities?” By incorporating the urban factor into the analysis, using a combination of foresight and forecasting, the study actually opens up a new perspective on mobility trends in the years to 2035, taking account of the changing needs and future lifestyles of individuals, and the consequent impacts on the demand for car-related products and services. In the article Véronique Lamblin, one of the directors of the study, outlines the method used to factor variations of urban mobility in cities and metropolises into the potential evolution of global motoring.