The stages in the foresight process
Foresight surveys: an important lever in a collective approach
What are we talking about?
In the context of a foresight exercise, the stage of ‘building the foresight system’, of research and documentation, and of putting in order an analysis base rarely involves the stakeholders in the process. The work is usually carried out within a technical or working group.
Stakeholders may have been consulted in the initial design phase of the ‘designing a foresight project’ work, through interviews and/or workshops, aimed at defining the problem, the parameters of the system under study, and understanding their expectations of the process.
Before establishing scenarios or producing a summary document, it is essential to be able to compare and enrich the main messages drawn from the analyses carried out. There are two reasons for this: firstly, to validate, invalidate and improve the analyses, and thus increase their robustness and relevance; and secondly, to share the work at the level of those involved in the change, experts and stakeholders. The aim here is for these players to gradually take hold of the foresight analyses.
The aim of foresight surveys is therefore to put the materials up for debate in an appropriate form: either hypotheses (or conjectures) about the future on the horizon studied, or summary messages about certain developments or transformations (often called ‘items’).
The aim of foresight surveys is therefore to put the materials up for debate in an appropriate form: either hypotheses (or conjectures) about the future on the horizon under study, or summary messages about certain developments or transformations (often called ‘items’).
Exemple tiré de l’enquête Innovation santé 2025, réalisée par le Leem (Les Entreprises du médicament), l’INSERM (Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale) et leurs partenaires en 2010
Vetfuturs 2030, enquête prospective réalisée en 2019 sur l’avenir de la profession vétérinaire avec le Syndicat national des vétérinaires d’exercice libéral (SNVEL) et le Conseil national de l’ordre des vétérinaires (CNOV)
There are four key aspects to a foresight survey
1.
The formulation of items based on work already carried out (interviews, fact sheets, etc.).
2.
The selection of a panel of stakeholders (experts, internal and/or external players) depending on the purpose of the process. This panel may comprise from a few dozen to several thousand participants, and may include specific sorting criteria (business, organisation, etc.).
3.
The choice of questioning techniques and scales (probability or likelihood of items, importance of change items, degree of preparation, etc.), and the choice of a management tool, particularly an online one.
4.
The use of data and, above all, its exploitation: converging and diverging analyses, identified additions, controversies between experts and stakeholders. It must be possible to access the results of a prospective survey (individual responses usually remain confidential).
The results of a survey process are manifold: the creation of foresight indicators within the panel (and of subjects for discussion), the organisation of feedback sessions with in-depth discussions in ad hoc sessions or working groups, and the publication of the survey results. Please note that the results of a survey only provide a set of representations of the future by the panel, and have no ‘statistical’ value. As such, the analysis of the results should focus as much on the knowledge and understanding of the participants as on their view of the future as a function of their sociology, or on their imaginary views. The survey is also useful for identifying fault lines within an organisation.
Examples of well-known foresight surveys:
What types of items do the surveys cover?
Depending on the approach, a foresight survey may cover several levels of analysis between foresight and strategy, namely :
- Major changes in the environment (trends, disruptions)
- The issues at stake for the subject (risks, potential gains/losses, reorganisation, new approaches)
- Levers for action or future projects.
All three aspects can equally be covered. In this case, care must be taken to differentiate between the different stages of the survey and to adapt the assessment criteria (we are not asking about the probability of a future project, but rather its importance or its driving role).
Techniques
Among the techniques frequently used in foresight, we find the Delphi method and its evolutions (Real Time Delphi, etc.), which essentially aim to make the analyses of a panel of experts converge to produce a shared or central vision of the future; the methods of color-coded and argued votes (of the Régnier abacus type), which aim rather to bring out the convergences and divergences of points of view between participants, and to deepen work already done. Finally, a large number of generic survey tools can also be used.
We do not recommend the use of detailed foresight surveys during the launch phase. While they are frequently used in the Anglo-Saxon world, particularly with experts, to produce a vision of the future which is then “disseminated” to stakeholders, we believe that the future remains largely to be built and is not an object of knowledge (there are no statistics on the future).