Qu’est ce que la prospective ? What are the Major Stages in a Foresight Exercise?

There is no standardized foresight process. Nevertheless, various different methods have been formalized. They all fit into a methodological framework that is shared generally by the various professionals in foresight.

To put it in a highly simplified way, foresight exercises cover three major dimensions/functions:

• Understanding ongoing developments and anticipating what may eventuate.
• Creating a space for sharing, dialogue and discussion on possible futures.
• Doing the groundwork for action to cope with long-term challenges.

They take the form of more or less participatory work processes in which the aim is to:

• Define the decision(s) to clarify and the relevant field of foresight study.
• Identify the main factors of change (internal or external to the field in question) and study their dynamics and interactions.
• Construct summary formats that formulate key messages about the future (major trends, scenarios, etc.).
• Examine the strategic questions prompted by the developments analysed.
• Foster the emergence of more or less highly developed responses to these strategic investigations.

There are formalized methods and more or less integrated tools suitable for use in all or part of this work process.