Forum des futurs Futures Forum 2023 - Ruptures! Preparing for the Future in a highly uncertain World

Presentation

In recent times, global crises – like the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine with the associated risk of a wider conflagration, and natural catastrophes on an unprecedented scale – have repeatedly forced a transformation of our daily lives.

This is not just passing turbulence in a peaceful pattern of ‘transition’. Rather it is the culmination of economic and geopolitical instabilities, climate and environmental decline, and technological acceleration. These factors are combining to produce sharp breaks with the past: and whilst some of these breaks will certainly occur, others are uncertain, and yet others are unforeseeable.

It is not always clear how to find one’s bearings in this situation. What Clausewitz called ‘the fog of war’ seems to be expanding across ever greater swathes of territory. How can long-term strategies and policies be formed in such a deeply unstable context? In the face of these uncertainties, various ‘strategic’ attitudes can be seen emerging: Promoting technophile visions (conquering Mars, virtual worlds); Encouraging transitional approaches (a carbon-neutral Europe); Proposing better defensive postures (robustness, resilience, anti-fragility…); Reaffirming the importance of raisons d’être and values as guiding principles etc.

Following on from the studies carried out by the Futuribles International association, the Futures Forum will shed light on these great global transformations and how they are reshaping the future. The Forum will provide a platform for experts and involved actors. What ruptures have we considered and can we imagine? How, today, are public, private and civil society actors approaching the need to take account of current and future disruptions in their decision-making and activities? Is it possible even to conceive and create deliberate ruptures or bifurcations that allow us to deal with future developments better? How can short-term imperatives be tied to long-term visions?

The Futures Forum is an event organized by the Futuribles International association. It is open to the public. Registration is mandatory for everyone.

The 2023 edition will take place on the 1st and 2nd of February, 2023 at the Cité des sciences et de l’industrie, in Paris.

The lectures will be in French. They will be simultaneously translated into English.

In collaboration with :

Program

DAY 1. ANTICIPATING THE UNCERTAIN
The first day will cast light on the global transformation that seem likely to mark the coming 20 to 30 years. What should we expect? How much of this is truly foreseeable? How many unknowns and uncertainties do we face?  What foresight methods are required to handle these changes and deal with the uncertainty?

9.00 – 9.30 a.m. – Reception

9.30 – 10.00 – Opening Session: How to Tame ‘Black Swans’?
Bruno Maquart, President of Universcience
Yannick Blanc, President of Futuribles International

10.00 – 11.00 – Environment, Climate: Trends and Tipping Points in the years to 2050
Moderator: François de Jouvenel, Futuribles

•     Major shifts in the years to 2050 with Emma Haziza, Hydrologist researcher, founder of Mayane

•     Facing the crises today and tomorrow: perspectives from the French Red Cross, with Philippe Breton, French Red Cross

•     ADEME’s “2050 Transitions Scenarios” and resilience issues in France, with Jean-Louis Bergey, ADEME (French Agency for Ecological Transition)

11.00 – 11.20 Break

11.20 – 12.20 p.m. – Geopolitics, Geoeconomics: Unpredictability, New Normality?
Moderator: François de Jouvenel, Futuribles
Major Trends, Global Scenarios, Conceivable Ruptures  with Florence Gaub (former Foresight Advisor, Council of the European Union), Elvire Fabry (Jacques Delors Institute) and Nicolas Mazzucchi (Centre d’études stratégiques de la Marine)

12.20 – 12.45 – The Principal Insights of the Future for a World in Crisis (1/2)
Summary findings of Futuribles’s Foresight Survey (first part) with Quentin Bisalli and François Bourse, Futuribles

12.45 – 2.15 – Buffet Lunch

2.15 – 3.15 – Technologies: Breakthroughs and New Frontiers, what’s next?
Moderator: Pierre-Antoine Marti, Futuribles
With Virginie Courtier-Orgogozo (CNRS (French National Centre for Scientific Research), Institut Jacques Monod, Researcher in Evolutionary Biology, Genomics), Laurence Devillers (Professor at Sorbonne University, Researcher in Artificial Intelligence), Sébastien Lombard (Head of Foresight, CNES (Centre national d’études spatiales))

3.15 – 3.30 – The Principal Insights of the Future for a World in Crisis (2/2)
Summary findings of Futuribles’s Foresight Survey (second part) with Quentin Bisalli and François Bourse, Futuribles

3.30 – 3.45 – Break

3.45 – 5.45 – Are We Living an Anthropological Revolution?

Presentation and Discussion of the key messages from the “Vigie Report 2023”:

“Human beings, being human in the Western world: towards major shifts in 2050?”  With Cécile Désaunay and Marie Ségur (Futuribles)

Exploring our societies’ relationships to nature, science and time in the coming decades: intervention from Dominique Bourg, philosopher and former teacher at the University of Lausanne , Coline Ruwet, PhD in Sociology, researcher and teacher at UCL, and Clair Michalon, consultant in social anthropology and cultural diversity

This session will include a participative conversation around design-fiction, led by Max Mollon, designer and co-director of the What If studio.

5.45 – 6.00 – Break

6.00 – 7.00 – Preparing for a World of Crises
Moderator: Yannick Blanc, Futuribles
How can we anticipate shocks, crises, and ruptures? How to best prepare our society and ourselves? How can we make decisions that will secure the future in a context of uncertainty? The testimony and points of view of great witnesses
With General Jean-Christophe Béchon and Philippe Da Costa, president of the French Red Cross

7.00 – 8.00 – Cocktail

DAY 2. BUILDING THE FUTURE
What can we do within our organizations to follow long-term courses of action (‘transitions’) which fit with this state of chronic—and often unpredictable—instability described on the first day?

9 – 9.30 a.m. – Welcome Coffee

9.30 – 10.30 – Preparing for the future within major companies (in English)
Moderator: Adrian Taylor, 4Sing
With Marianne Julien (Head of I-Lab, Air Liquide), Wolfang Müller-Pietralla (Director of Future Research, Volkswagen), Gaël Queinnec (Head of Foresight, Michelin)

10.30 – 11.30 – Empowerment at the Core of New Collective Organizations
Moderator: Yannick Blanc, Futuribles
With Victoria Bazurto, Head of research and evaluation supervision of the “Territoires zéro chômeur de longue durée” program, Mathilde Finon, Director of the Paris section of the association La Cloche and Michel Maietta, Director of IARAN

11.30 – 11.50 – Break

11.50 – 1 p.m. – What Role can Finance play to make the Future Secure?
Moderator: Arnaud Dumas, Novethic
With Odile Ezerzer, Director of Finance Sanvings and Managing Director of Mutavie at Macif, Philippe Jahshan, Director of Stratgy, Foresight and Public Relations, Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Clément Payerols, in charge of scenarios design, Network for Greening the Financial System and Stientje van Veldhoven, Vice-Presidente, Regional Director for Europe, World Resources Institute (WRI)

1 – 2.30 – Lunch

2.30 – 3.45 – Foresight Workshops

• [Workshop in French] Workshop 1. “Narratopias”: living in Paris in 2050, facilitated by Chloé Luchs-Tassé and Juliette Grossmann, University of Plurality. Introduction to foresight creative and collaborative approach, based on a game about the city of tomorrow.
• [Workshop in French] Workshop 2. Thinking about the future of space through ruptures, facilitated by Mateo Bonnassieux, Strategy Department, CNES, and Pierre-Antoine Marti, Futuribles. Exploration of the possible role of the space sector in the economy and society of tomorrow, on the basis of breakthroughs identified in an ongoing prospective approach. An approach nourished by design fiction.
• [Workshop in French] Workshop 3. Thinking about ruptures in a territory using the “How To? What If?” method, facilitated by Quentin Bisalli, Futuribles. Presentation of the “How To? What If?” method and collective application on a territorial case. Presentation of “flash” foresight methods in territorial foresight.
• [Workshop in French] Workshop 4. “Transitions 2050”: how to use ADEME scenarios in the territories, facilitated by Frédéric Weill, Futuribles, and Lionel Combet, ADEME. How territorial organizations can project themselves from the 4 major ADEME scenarios to aim for carbon neutrality by 2050.
• [Workshop in French & in English] Workshop 5. Introduction to the problems of decolonization of the future: “The Bus within us” approach, facilitated by Eva Kwamou Feukeu, researcher in anticipation and coordinator of the program “Decolonization of comparative law” at the Max Planck Institute in Germany. Introduction and implementation of a methodology to defocus one’s gaze in the process of projecting into the future.
• [Workshop in French] Workshop 6. Foresight of health in France: what needs?, facilitated by François Bourse, Futuribles. Echoing the approach of the “Forum prospectif santé 2040”, a time for collective thinking on the “challenges and new frontiers of health by 2040”.
• [Workshop in French] Workshop 7. Prospective of gender identities applied to professional organizations, facilitated by Marie Ségur, Futuribles. Workshop in How to? / What if? format based on a design fiction creation from the Vigie 2023 report.
• [Workshop in English] Workshop 8. How can we ensure our foresight has a real impact on decision makers? facilitated by Adrian Taylor, 4Sing – foresight to strategy . How can organizations ensure that their foresight works really impact their strategies? A collective conversation and workshop. (Workshop in English)
• [Workshop in French] Workshop 9. Future of work: understanding major uncertainties, led by Jennifer Clerté and Marc Malenfer, INRS (Reference body for occupationnal risk prevention in France). Collaborative workshop to identify the major uncertainties related to the future of work, and the types of organizations to consider in order to deal with them.

3.45 – 4.00 – Break

4.00 – 5.30 – Anticipating and Building the Future in an Unstable Context. How to Proceed in Public Institutions?
Moderator: François de Jouvenel, Futuribles
With Christian Goumaz, Secretary General, State of Geneva, Issa Larba Kobyagda, Director General of Economy and Planning at the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Prospective of Burkina Faso, Gilles de Margerie, Commissioner of France Stratégie, Simon Robertson, Manager of Strategic Foresight at Policy Horizons Canada

5. 30 – 5.40 – Conclusion with Yannick Blanc, Futuribles