As we put the final touches to this issue of Futuribles, U.S. president Joe Biden has just handed over to his vice-president Kamala Harris to lead the Democratic ticket against ex-president Donald Trump in the election of 5 November 2024. The aim, quite obviously, is to have the best possible chance of preventing that populist former president from returning to the leadership of a state whose institutions he flouted four years ago. Without second-guessing the outcome of the vote, what can we say about the foreign policy the United States might pursue after the election?
Laurent Cohen-Tanugi, a barrister in Paris and New York and a seasoned analyst of institutions on both sides of the Atlantic, lays out — not without reminding us of the current uncertainties — the foreign policy differences between the two candidates in a particularly fraught geopolitical context (war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, and tensions with China). Drawing mainly on the known positions of their respective advisers and Donald Trump’s animosity to Europe, he shows how the latter could damage transatlantic relations and the international order, as he concentrates more on protecting American interests and on tensions with China. This possible weakening of ties with Europe ought, as the author sees it, to prompt the continent to take a renewed grip on its security and defence, and increase its influence on the international stage.
This article is downloadable only in French. It is not available in English.
