The 28e Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), held in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates from November 30 to December 12, 2023, recognized in its final declaration the need for a “transition away from fossil fuels”, with governments invited to contribute to it, “so as to achieve net zero [CO2 emissions] by 2050 in keeping with the science”. The term ‘transition’ is admittedly ambiguous.[1] It does not call for a ‘phasing out’ of fossil fuels, but the Dubai declaration undoubtedly marks a change in attitude on the part of countries that until now have been reluctant to consider this transition. In this report published after COP28, the IEA (International Energy Agency) takes stock of global CO2 emissions and asks how far we still have to go to achieve carbon neutrality.
IEA (International Energy Agency), CO2 Emissions in 2023: A New Record High, but Is there Light at the End of the Tunnel?, Paris: IEA, February 2024, 24 p.
In the first part, the IEA gives a mixed assessment of the situation. Overall, global energy-related CO2 emissions rose by “only” 1.1% in 2023 compared with 2022 (by 410 million tonnes [Mt], reaching an annual record of 37.4 billion tonnes [Gt]), a smaller increase than in 2022 (1.3%). It notes that emissions from coal accounted for 65% of the increase in 2023, and that without the deployment of so-called clean energies and associated technologies (solar photovoltaics, wind power, nuclear power, heat pumps and electric cars), the growth in CO2 emissions would have been three times higher. However, drought in several regions of the world has penalised hydroelectric production, contributing to an increase in the emissions balance of 170 MtCO2 (the lower production of dams being offset by the use of carbon-based electricity). Over the period 2019-2023, total energy-related emissions have increased by 900 Mt (with a drop in 2020-2021 during the Covid-19 pandemic). Finally, the IEA notes that the emissions growth rate over the last 10 years (3% per year) has been lower than in the 1970s and 1980s.
