After a lean period, air traffic is enjoying a spectacular rebound, on a par with the brutal collapse it suffered during the Covid crisis in 2020 (down 60%[1] ). In the longer term, however, the sector’s growth could be slowed by the end of the post-pandemic cycle and the rise of climate regulations.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), it takes civil air transport an average of five years to recover the traffic lost during a crisis. With traffic growth expected to reach 3% in 2024 compared with 2019, the upturn in activity is encouraging.[2] For aircraft manufacturers and airports, the economic equation is slightly different, but here too the results are very encouraging. This was demonstrated at the 2023 International Paris Air Show, where airlines filled the order books of the two largest aircraft manufacturers, with more than 1,000 aircraft sold.[3]
A recovering market
Against this backdrop, the aviation giants are forecasting robust growth and a doubling of fleets to 48,575 aircraft by 2040. IATA estimates that global traffic could reach 7.2 billion passengers by 2035 and 10 billion by 2050, compared with 4.5 billion in 2019 (Figure 1). Traffic could double in Europe, increase by a factor of 2.5 in South America and by a factor of 3.25 in Asia-Pacific.
This optimistic outlook can be explained both by the growth potential of several emerging countries and by the continuing real desire of consumers in Western countries to fly. In addition, the growth in the number of aircraft orders can be explained by the cyclical effects of Western airlines, which are obliged to renew their fleets at least every 25 years. However, other factors could constrain the sector’s structural growth.
Figure 1. Global air passengers, past and forecast (billions)
Source: IATA, Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts in Global Outlook for Air Transport: Sustained Recovery Amidst Strong Headwinds, December 2022, p. 11.
Travel, travel…
One obvious obstacle is the climate emergency and people’s growing concern about the carbon impact of civil aviation, symbolised in Europe by the concepts of flight shame or flygskam. According to an Ipsos study, during the summer of 2023, two out of three European holidaymakers said they were prepared to change their mode of transport to reduce their carbon impact. Against this backdrop, the massive orders for aircraft from emerging countries — particularly Indian airlines, which have broken records for the largest orders — have not failed to provoke some criticism. The philosopher Gaspard Koenig suggested that it was time to “travel less far and less fast”, while Jean-Marc Jancovici, founder of the Shift Project, suggested imposing quotas: “no more than four flights per person, over a lifetime”. For the moment, however, this rethink is not reflected in civil aviation statistics. According to the same Ipsos study, 37% of Europeans plan to travel by plane this year, compared with 22% in 2021.
Ecological transition, what prospects?
The other factor that could constrain the sector’s growth is the emergence of more stringent regulations aimed at reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), for example, has set a target of reducing CO2 emissions in global aviation by 5% by 2030, and reducing net carbon emissions to zero by 2050. This objective does not seem to worry players in the aviation sector, who are betting on the effects of future technological leaps. Technological breakthroughs alone should help to reduce emissions by 26%, according to the ATAG (Air Transport Action Group)[4] . Moreover, in the short term, the use of big data, better application of eco-piloting practices, lighter aircraft, electric taxiing, optimisation of airport infrastructures, an increase in the proportion of non-stop flights, better aircraft load factor, etc., would probably enable the sector to achieve and even surpass its targets (5% by 2030), according to some experts.[5]
Figure 2. Impact of measures adopted and CO2 emissions trajectory for global air transport (in millions of tonnes of CO2)
