With its Green Deal in 2019 and its ‘Fit for 55’ package in 2021 (referring to the aim of a 55% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030), the European Union was set, at the beginning of this decade, on a highly proactive trajectory in its fight against climate change. But, after the Covid crisis, which had shown that lifestyle changes in the direction of energy restraint were possible, the return to more wasteful strategies and, most importantly, the conflict in Ukraine substantially changed the context for energy transition. How, in such a situation, are we to stay on course and advance into the future — and, particularly, into a carbon-neutral future?
Patrick Criqui and Emmanuel Hache ask themselves that question here and take the measure of this new context, which has become highly unstable for energy/climate transition. They assess the geopolitical uncertainties (international climate negotiations; war in Ukraine and tensions between states; the energy crisis), as well as uncertainties around technology (endogenous technical progress; creative destruction and disruption; energy technologies, including decarbonization; and socio-technical transitions) and those of a societal nature (the levers for individual and collective change to promote energy frugality). Lastly, they sketch out four distinct scenarios when it comes to climate foresight in the years to 2050, combining the more or less cooperative dimension of international relations with the dynamic and pace of decarbonization, all of which provides a solid base enabling ecological planners to identify the most desirable future(s) and work to chart the best course for bringing it(them) about.
