Housing and the Building Industry to 2050

In response to the climate emergency and to enhanced European ambitions for carbon neutrality, a number of foresight exercises have been undertaken in recent years to inform the debate on the kind of ecological transition strategy required to achieve the de-carbonization of France. Among these, we may recall the study by ADEME (the Ecological Transition Agency) entitled Transition(s) 2050, which we presented in our previous issue, on which, among other studies, the foresight work on the building industry outlined here by Albane Gaspard and Jean-Christophe Visier draws. The residential and tertiary sector is responsible for a little over 20% of greenhouse gas emissions in France (2019 figures); its share has been falling for around 30 years, thanks to renovation efforts and energy efficiency gains, but the sector remains a strategic one for ecological transition. In this context, what are the future prospects for housing and for the building industry up to 2050? It is this question which the foresight study Imaginons ensemble les bâtiments de demain [Together Let’s Imagine the Buildings of Tomorrow] aims to answer and this article presents its methodology, the main lessons to be drawn, and the four scenarios that emerged from it (‘Hard to do Everything’; ‘Rebalancing(s)’; ‘Building as Service’; and ‘Shortages’). Combining exploratory and normative, qualitative and quantitative foresight, these studies explore the many facets of transition for the building and property industries and show how the part the sector might play in transition will depend on the capacity for change of all involved (from industry professionals to residential occupants).