The stages in the foresight process
Scenario building
Why use scenarios?
Foresight scenarios are narratives of possible futures. They can be particularly useful in foresight analysis of a complex subject, where different types and rates of change need to be brought together. A mobility scenario, for example, will illustrate the ban on internal combustion vehicles by 2035, and its impact on mobility practices and the attractiveness of other modes of transport.
As part of a foresight exercise, the scenarios can have three complementary objectives:
1) To provide summary material that encourages collective awareness and debate.
2) To provide a basis for innovation, for example by asking what needs to be changed or invented in order to be a ‘winner’ in this scenario.
3) To stimulate strategic thinking, for example by considering the possible responses to different future scenarios.
However, a foresight exercise does not necessarily have to lead to the construction of scenarios. And, even when this choice is made, scenarios :
- are not the only deliverable of the process, because it is just as important to make the most of the work done beforehand;
- are not the final stage in the process, because the scenarios require a great deal of work to be done in terms of valorisation and discussion.
In a strategic foresight exercise, i.e. one designed to inform strategic decisions, several sets of scenarios can be developed. Some will relate to changes in the context in which the organisation is evolving; the others will be ‘strategic scenarios’ and will relate to the directions and actions that can be taken by this organisation.
General information on scenarios
Scenarios can be of two different kinds:
1) Exploratory: the aim is to identify, on a given subject, the different possible futures for the time horizon under consideration.
2) Normative: the analysis starts from a point of arrival or a fixed objective (e.g. carbon neutrality by 2050) and must identify different trajectories to achieve it. This is, for example, the approach adopted by ADEME (the French Agency for Ecological Transition) in its ‘Transition(s) 2050’ initiative, which has led to build four scenarios for a carbon-neutral France.
In both cases, a scenario comprises three elements:
- a dominant logic, which defines the scenario and makes it possible to differentiate it from the others ;
- a final image, for the time horizon in question, describing the scenario’s arrival point and measuring the scale of the changes considered in the scenario;
- a trajectory, which describes the path envisioned between the current situation and the arrival point, and thus makes the scenario credible.
Building scenarios
There are various techniques for building scenarios, depending on the ambition being pursued, the time available, the complexity of the subject, etc. Three techniques are especially used today in foresight.
The binary or 2×2 technique
This is the technique most commonly used in the English-speaking world. It consists of building four scenarios around two axes of uncertainty. Numerous examples are available free of charge. This technique makes it possible to develop scenarios quickly and easily, but it also has its limitations: it is mainly suited to simple subjects (since the scenarios are reduced to two uncertainties); it focuses on the final pictures but not on the trajectories; the scenarios can therefore appear very caricatured and poor, particularly if the two starting axes are poorly chosen.
Building scenarios using morphological analysis
This is the most comprehensive technique for building scenarios. Scenarios are built by integrating a large number of variables (usually between 15 and 30), for which a specific retrospective and foresight analysis is carried out beforehand. The scenarios then result from different combinations of hypotheses concerning these variables. This technique usually results in the construction of three to five scenarios. The work process is longer (from four months to a year) and more participatory, but ensures a high degree of rigour and transparency, making it easier to appropriate the scenarios.
Building scenarios based on a discontinuity
Scenarios can also be built around a discontinuity situation or a shock in the more or less distant future. In this case, the focus will be on the discontinuity that seems particularly important to study. The scenario can then be built in a workshop aimed at identifying :
1) the main trends and changes that could lead to this discontinuity;
2) its main consequences.
This approach was used by Futuribles to draw up its Vigie 2020 Report, which focuses on 16 major geo-economic discontinuities and shocks up to 2040-2050 (‘What-if’ scenarios).
Over and above the objectives of the scenarios and the techniques used to build them, a crucial question is who builds these scenarios. It is generally accepted that participation in the development of scenarios is the best way of making them one’s own…
Scenarios are written in a variety of formats, depending on the audience for which they are intended: detailed narratives, summary formats, presentation of personae to embody them, translation into videos, etc.
Helpful resources
Morphological Analysis
Morphological analysis enables users to explore the possible futures of a system based on a combination of hypotheses related to that system’s components or variables. Originally employed in technological innovation, this method also lends itself to scenario building in foresight.
Scenario Building: The 2×2 Matrix Technique
This collective scenario generation technique pairs the two drivers of the highest importance and the greatest uncertainty for the topic under study as axes creating a 2×2 matrix which forms the basis for possible scenarios.
