The stages in the foresight process
Defining the system and analysing its dynamics
Once the objectives of the foresight approach have been set, the contours and content of the system under study need to be defined. To do this, the first step is to define empirically the subject under study, the different factors or parameters to be taken into account in the reflection, and how all these elements fit together. To do this, a distinction in three interlocking circles can begin to organise these different dimensions:
• The central circle (‘system’) corresponds to the subject of the foresight process: an economic sector, an organisation, a territory, an issue, etc.
• The intermediate circle (‘ecosystem’) represents the subjects or parameters that interact directly with the central circle.
• The outer circle (‘environment’) represents the general context of the process, i.e. the societal, geopolitical and environmental background in which it takes place.
After this initial ‘groundwork’, we need to go into more detail about the system under study and identify its various components (or variables). The aim of this stage is to answer a number of questions: what are the different variables in the system and what are their interrelationships? In the light of this analysis, what are the most important (or driving) variables in the system? This stage is essential in order to lay a solid foundation for the foresight approach: the aim is to determine the structure and dynamics of the system, so that we can then understand under what conditions it might evolve in a particular direction in the future.
This analysis of the system can be based on empirical methods, with the players involved in this stage qualitatively characterising the nature of the relationships between the variables, as well as the weighting of their level of influence. It can also be based on more structured methods (structural analysis), in order to review and qualify the different variables and their interactions in a more systematic way.
At the end of the exercise, you have a simplified visual representation of the structure of the system under study, including its relationships with outer ‘circles’.
We then need to study the dynamics of the system described in this way: what have been the main developments in the past and what are the dynamics currently at work? And what might be the future trends for each of the identified variables?
To do this, we first need to highlight the main trends currently at work for each of the variables. A look at past trends will generally reveal the most structuring developments.
The next step is to identify the factors that could influence these trends in the future. To do this, the analysis will distinguish between different types of trends:
• Major trends: these are phenomena with a high degree of inertia over the medium to long term, and which are highly structuring for the subject under study. These changes are slow but can be influenced.
• Emerging trends/weak signals correspond to emerging phenomena which may lead to a change in a major trend, a discontinuity, or the start of a new trend. They can be announced by a “weak signal”.
• Uncertainties or possible disruptions are situations and events of all kinds (political, economic, organisational, etc.) which are unpredictable (in the sense that no precise date can be set for their occurrence), but which have a high potential impact.
On the basis of these elements, we will describe, in the form of contrasting hypotheses, the possible future developments of the variable, by combining these different dynamics (more or less structuring, more or less certain).
Generally speaking, we start by formulating a trend hypothesis (i.e. one that does not represent a major break with current trends), followed by several more radical hypotheses, corresponding to the confirmation of current weak signals or the arrival of a breaking point.
These different types of information can be formalised in a ‘driver report’.
Helpful resource
The Driver Report
The driver report presents the documentation necessary to understand the evolution — past, present and future — of a variable.