Journal

Is the U.S. debt taking off?

This article is published in Futuribles journal no.325, décembre 2006

With a growth rate in 2005 of 3.5%, the United States retains its global economic dominance. Yet the downsides of this economic vitality are increasingly obvious.
Since the mid 1990s the U.S. trade balance has been in deficit every year because its economic growth is fuelled more by imports than exports. The deficit currently runs to more than $2 billion per day on average. America is particularly dependant on imported cars, oil and consumer goods. The trade deficit is greatest with China, Canada and Mexico.
Charles du Granrut explains in this article that the key to understanding how the U.S. has managed to finance its growth and its trade deficit for as long as it has lies in its financial relationships with the rest of the world.
The author discusses the mechanisms that brought about the trade deficit and that can explain why it continues, despite the fall in value of the dollar and the risks that could arise from it. He goes on to present several scenarios for 2025 and the risks involved if the debt were to become unsustainable. The conclusion is that the present situation of the U.S. is both difficult to maintain in the medium term and yet useful in stimulating growth throughout the world and in redistributing global savings.

#Commerce extérieur #États-Unis